Jeff Rohlfs Website


cartoon of special interests and voters

New Articles:

The Debt-Limit Crisis – A Modern Mexican Standoff

The Mexican standoff is a possible outcome whenever control of the government is divided. The key principle is that if a standoff leads to a serious crisis, the political party that appears more reasonable wins at the expense of the other. Because of this principle, (political) Mexican standoffs usually do not end in shootouts, leading to serious crises. Rather, both sides strive to appear reasonable (at least at the critical point in time), and no one pulls the trigger.
In particular, the debt-limit crisis of 2011 ultimately led to a reasonable outcome. So did the earlier Mexican standoff in 1995-1996. But there were some tense moments along the way. Download article.


Predicting Presidential Elections

This article proposes a simple formula for predicting which candidate will decisively win a presidential election or whether the election will be close. The formula reflects the following considerations:

The formula accurately predicts the outcomes of 19 of the 20 elections between 1932 and 2008. It predicts a decisive victory for Obama this year (2012). Download article.

Boss or Dupe – The Voter in American Politics

In the woods, sometimes you eat the bear: sometimes the bear eats you.

In politics, sometimes the voter is the boss; sometimes the voter is a dupe.

The outcome is largely determined by the fundamental principle of special-interest politics, developed in this new book by Dr. Jeff Rohlfs.

Download in Various Formats

Dr. Jeff Rohlfs has written a candid yet sophisticated analysis of the interplay of special interests and voters in Washington politics. This book is available as a free PDF download from this website.It is also available in Kindle and Nook formats from Amazon and Barnes & Noble respectively for $2.99.

Download PDF here

Download Kindle version from Amazon

Download Nook version from Barnes & Noble

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